The end of the 3rd quarter this year falls neatly on a Sunday, so what better time is there for me compile the results of this month’s real estate activity in our area and share them with you than today?
Conveniently, I have some terrific comparable stats from this day last year, which are searchable on this blog, and that post is here for your reference.
So a quick scan of the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS) shows that in the city of Long Beach, we have 583 residential homes for sale today. Compare this with one year ago, when that number was 466. That’s a 117 more homes for sale this year vs last year this time, or a 25% increase in inventory from a year ago. That is quite significant.
The median list price of all homes for sale in Long Beach today is $612,000, down from $620,000 a year ago today, but still very close. 50% of all homes for sale in Long Beach are listed at above $612,000, and 50% are listed at below $612,000.
Let’s look at sales. In the month of September 2018, 263 homes sold/closed escrow. Compare this to last September, when 307 homes sold/closed escrow. There was a decline of 44 homes or 14% in sales.
A useful ratio is the sales to active listings ratio. This year, today, the sales to active listings ratio is 45%. That ratio last year was 66%.
Or, that ratio flipped over would look like this: this year, we have 2.2 months of inventory on the market, while last year this time, we had 1.5 months of inventory on the market, when we compare sales closed in the month of Sept vs how many active listings there are on the market (inventory).
Conclusion: We have more inventory today than a year ago, it’s taking longer to sell, and we have fewer sales than a year ago.
Next stat to look at is absorption rate. Let’s take into account those residential properties in Long Beach that are under contract and are pending sales this month:
There are currently 345 properties which are under contract or pending status on the MLS.
Compare this with 395 last year this date. That is a 12.6% reduction.
More specifically, 245 of these went under contract in the last 30 days.
Absorption rate for properties in the last 30 days is 42%.
Still very good absorption of properties in our market.
Let’s now take a quick look at the breakdown in price points:
Of the 583 homes actively listed for sale:
108 of them are listing for over $1,000,000. That’s over 18% of homes on the market listed over a million dollars in our area.
19 homes over one million dollars closed escrow in September (out of total 263 sales). Only 7% of the sales were for properties over $1M. Last year it was 9% of sales. Trend is decline of sales of over $1M properties.
193 homes are listed for between $600,000 to $1,000,000. That’s 33% of the active listings.
103 homes closed between $600,000 to $1,000,000. That’s 39% of the total sales in month of September. ***Here is a sweet spot with a very good match between listings and sales.***
Finally, in the under $600,000 market:
285 homes are for sale, representing 49% of the homes for sale in Long Beach.
145 homes closed escrow under $600,000, representing 55% of sales in the month of September. ***Here is the major sweet spot with the best match between listings and sales.***
So there you have it! Very strong market still under $600,000, good market between $600,000 and $1M, softening and arguable dragging market over $1M. Overall slowing of the market compared to the very strong year 2017. Changing winds. Increasing interest rates in our market and all over the country leading people to hesitate to purchase higher priced properties.
So who am I looking for now, you may be wondering?
I’m looking for people looking to cash out of what appears to be a high point in the market, after 7 years of year-on-year price increases in the area. In particular, people retiring and may be looking to cash out of their California property in order to move out of the area, out of state, for example. People with a condo or house valued under a million dollars looking to maximize their gain in a time that the market has been increasing, but is showing clear signs of slowing, suggesting a peak in prices and activity.
If you know someone like that, will you give me a call so that I can reach out and see if I may be the right agent to help them with their goal?
Likewise, if you are looking for an agent with her finger on the pulse of the market, knows the local market backwards and forwards, is studying homes and prices every day, please do not hesitate to reach out to me at 310-739-8272 or by email at NancyD@century21masters.com. I am here to answer your questions and provide you with the best service in the area.
Nancy Deprez
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